Alligator Indicator for Day Trading Explained with 97 % success rate

Alligator Indicator for Day Trading Explained with 97 % success rate

Nifty PE FOR 1 YEAR - Current value 18.5

Nifty PE FOR 1 YEAR - Current value 18.5

• NIFTY P/E is the best indicator which helps long term investors to decide when to enter and when to exit.
• For past 1 Year Nifty has Fallen from 24 to 18.5. This shows the weakness in Market.
• Long term can start investing in staggered manner after P/E goes below 18. P/E generally can go till 15 and Bouce back from there Sharply.
• As India is still in Growth Phase, we can see the stocks booming.
• Current fall is because of Global factor and US probably going into recession again.

Success Mantras for Day Traders

Success Mantras for Day Traders

• Day traders are the once who loose most of the money in Share Market
• You need to follow the below Mantras to be a successful Day trade.

EPFO may invest 4000 to 5000 Crores in Share Market-Watch out for PSU Stocks

EPFO may invest 4000 to 5000 Crores in Share Market-Watch out for PSU Stocks

• Employee Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) of which all working class in India save there money for retirement will start investing from 5 to 15 % of the money in Market.
• This could be a huge game changer in market.Traditionally India depends on FII flows to move the market up.
• But with consistent money coming in from LIC and local MF,market has moved to new highs.
• But there was always a risk that people pull out the money and then we again depend on FII to move the market.
• But with EPFO coming in it could decide the whole game. At 5% investment it around 5000 crores and at 15% investment its around 15000 crores. This is a good amount of money to move the market to new highs and depend less on FII's
• Also markets are expecting that this money could be invested in Navratna Government Companies intially and slowly spread to NIFTY stocks.

Nifty Price/Earning Ratio (PE) Chart for 2015

Nifty Price/Earning Ratio (PE) Chart for 2015

• Nifty PE ratio is a very good indicator to decide when to enter the and when to Exit.
• As you can see from above 6 months chart, we see resistance when it goes above PE 23.
• The firsttime when it break up above 23 in month of Feb it stayed there about for 1 month. That was because of the Budget hopes.
• The secondtime it went above 23 on April, it came back down within 20 days
• So you can see clear resitance once it crosses 23.
• So wait for this time when it goes above 23 and it starts falling from peak you can go short and make money. 

Portfolio for Medium risk Investors 2015

Portfolio for Medium risk Investors 2015

• Bellow are the stocks we recommend for medium risk investors.
• These stock may give 30 to 50 % return if this Bull market is intact in 2015.
• Can be a potential Large cap tomorrow.

Nifty Returns in last 5 years A reality check Must read

Nifty Returns in last 5 years A reality check Must read

• First I want to wish all my Followers and readers a very happy new year.
• I today want to give you an reality check on Nifty returns for past 5 years
• Check the Chart below for last 5 years.

• You can see that despite all the pro government talks and all the positive momentum, the Share market major index Nifty has give 31 % return YoY.
• You can also see in 2012 when earlier government was ruling it gave a return of 27 % despite all the SCAM's and negative new going on.
• Also a important thing to see is that when the markets give such a good returns in a year,it take a pause and just give around 5.95 % returns
• So people should be careful investing this year ans wait before entering and only invest in value buys and good companies.

Trading Stocks Recommendation for the Week- 17 Nov

Trading Stocks Recommendation for the Week- 17 Nov

Following are the stocks that we are recommending this week on 17th Nov 2014

• HDFCBANK (HDFC BANK LTD) 
• GLENMARK (GLENMARK PHARMACEUTICALS) 
• M&MFIN (M&M FIN. SERVICES LTD) 
• SBIN (STATE BANK OF INDIA) 
• TATACHEM (TATA CHEMICALS LTD) 

5 key factors to look for while investing in Stock market

5 key factors to look for while investing in Stock market

1. Earnings

The key element all investors look after is earnings. Before investing in a company you want to know how much the company is making in profits. Future earnings are a key factor as the future prospects of the company's business and potential growth opportunities are determinants of the stock price.

Factors determining earnings of the company are such as sales, costs, assets and liabilities. A simplified view of the earnings is earnings per share (EPS). This is a figure of the earnings which denotes the amount of earnings for each outstanding share.

 

2. Profit Margins

Amount of earnings do not tell the full story, increasing earnings are good but if the cost increases more than revenues then the profit margin is not improving. The profit margin measures how much the company keeps in earnings out of every dollar of their revenues. This measure is therefore very useful for comparing similar companies, within the same industry.

 

Higher profit margin indicates that the company has better control over its costs than its competitors. Profit margin is displayed in percentages and a 10 percent profit margin denotes that the company has a net income of 10 cents for each dollar of their revenues.

To get better understanding of profit margins it is good to compare two companies with alternative margins, see table below.

3. Return on Equity (ROE)

Return of equity (ROE) is a financial ratio that does not account for the stock price. Since it ignores the price entirely it is by many thought of as THE most important financial measure. It can basically be thought of as the parent ratio that always needs to be considered.

This ratio is a measure of how efficient a company is in generating its profits. It is a ratio of revenue and profits to owners' equity (shareholders are the owners). Specifically it is: 

 

An easy example of this is that if company A and company B both generate net profits of $1 Million but company A has equity of $10 Million but company B has equity of $100 Million. Their ROE would be 10% and 1% respectively meaning that company A is more efficient as it was able to produce the same amount of earnings with 10 times less equity. 

 

 

The reason for why this measure is so important is because it contains information about several factors, such as:

• Leverage (which is the debt of the company)

• Revenue, profits and margins

• Returning values to shareholders

Good approximation is that ROE should be 10-40% greater than its peer.

4. Price-to-Earnings (P/E)

When taking the current market price into consideration, the most popular ratio is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. As the name suggest it is the current market price divided by its earnings per share (EPS). It is an easy way to get a quick look of a stock's value.

A high P/E indicates that the stock is priced relatively high to its earnings, and companies with higher P/E therefore seem more expensive. However, this measure, as well as other financial ratios, needs to be compared to similar companies within the same sector or to its own historical P/E. This is due to different characteristics in different sectors and changing markets conditions.

This ratio does not tell the full story since it does not account for growth. Normally, companies with high earnings growth are traded at higher P/E values than companies with more moderate growth rate. Accordingly, if the company is growing rapidly and is expected to maintain its growth in the future this current market price might not seem so expensive.  This is the reasoning for the existence of different investment styles; Value vs. Growth stocks.  

Example 

While some sectors normally have low P/E measures, other sectors commonly have higher ratios. For example, utilities commonly have P/E ranging from 5 to 10 while technology companies commonly have a P/E ratio ranging from 15 to 20 or above. This is due to expectations in the market about the sector and its earnings-growth possibilities. The utility sector has stable earnings and is not expected to grow rapidly while technology companies are expected to grow faster and tend to need less capital for its growth. 

In order to simplify, the following table illustrates four companies in two sectors  with alternative figures.

 

It is not very appropriate to compare Apple with GDF Suez as Apple has a growth rate of 11 times more than GDF. It is more appropriate to compare Apple with Google. In that relation, Apple seems cheaper than Google by the look of the P/E. Now you should ask why that could be? -is this bargain or are some other reason why Apple is priced lower than Google. One suggestion might be that the market expects Google to have more earnings-growth in the coming future and Apple's previous earnings growth is not expected to grow much further. 

 

In order to account for growth, the P/E ratio can be modified into the Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio. A PEG ratio is calculated by dividing the stock's P/E ratio by its expected 12 month growth rate. A common rule of thumb is that the growth rate ought to be roughly equal to the P/E ratio and thus the PEG ratio should be around 1. A relatively low PEG ratio indicates an undervalued stock and a PEG ratio much greater than 1 indicates an overvalued stock.

The PEG ratio can be very informative figure, especially for fast growing and cyclical companies. In this one ratio you get an understanding of the company's earnings, growth expectations and whether it is trading at a reasonable price relative to its fundamentals.

 

5. Price-to-Book (P/B)

A price-to-book (P/B) ratio is used to compare a stock's market value to its book value. It can be calculated as the current share price divided to the book value per share, according to previous financial statement. In a broader sense, it can also be calculated as the total market capitalization of the company divided by all the shareholders equity.

This ratio gives certain idea of whether you are paying too high price for the stock as it denotes what would be the residual value if the company went bankrupt today.

A higher P/B ratio than 1 denotes that the share price is higher than what the company's assed would be sold for. The difference indicates what investors think about the future growth potential of the company.

Your Portfolio Stocks for next 5 years

Your Portfolio Stocks for next 5 years


Your Portfolio Stocks for next 5 years which will give good returns of atleast 20 % every year.

Public sector stocks:

• ONGC
• NTPC
• BPCL
• COAL India
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Logic for above stocks :Better policies and decontrol of Diesel and reduce susidies.

Private sectors stocks:

• ICICI Bank
• L&T
• JSW Steel
• Indus Ind bank
• Ultra tech cement
• Voltas
• Adani Ports

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Logic for above stocks: Strong Infra policies,Growth,India Shining story,Upgrade of Middle class to upper middle class