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Saturday, 29 August 2015

What is Open Interest and Volume and how do they differ in Stock Market

What is Open Interest and Volume and how do they differ in Stock Market


  • An open interest is the total number of contracts outstanding (yet to be settled) for an underlying asset. The quotes given above show us on August 9, 2010 Nifty futures has an open Interest of 32062850. It is important to understand that number of long futures as well as number of short futures is 32062850. This is because total number of long futures will always be equal to total number of short futures. Only one side of contracts is considered while calculating/ mentioning open interest. On August 8, 2010, the open interest in Nifty futures was 30959200. This means that there is an increase of 1103650 in the open interest on August 9, 2010. The level of open interest indicates depth in the market. 

  • Volumes traded give us an idea about the market activity with regards to specific contract over a given period – volume over a day, over a week or month or over entire life of the contract.  

Brick by Brick (Renko) Theory

Brick by Brick (Renko) Theory


A common complaint from traders is that they seem to exit from profitable trades too soon. They find that fear grips them and they find they could have made much more money if they had only stayed in the trade longer. In our search for profits, we are often shaken out by the market’s noise.
What if there was a way to chart that minimized the effect of that market noise and could filter out small corrections, while still giving you the ability to see reversals that could put your profits in jeopardy? Well, you are in luck because there is such a tool. It is known as a renko chart.
Renko (derived from the Japanese word “renga,” or brick), is based on movements in price and not time. There must be a particular size of movement or the chart ignores it. Since time is not a factor for renko charts, it may be a technique that should be used for swing or position traders rather than for intraday traders.
The only parameter that must be determined for the renko chart is the size of the brick itself. The larger the size, the less movement a chart will show, but there will be larger stops on the positions. If you use too small of a brick size, you will have too much sensitivity to price movement, and the reason for using the renko chart is lost. While there is no perfect setting, traders will often use 1% of the price of the stock as the setting on daily renko charts. You need to experiment yourself and see which number offers you the best view of the trend.
Renko bricks are drawn at 45 degree angles from each other and are based on the closing price per period. If you have a brick setting of 5 rupees and the share price closes 23 rupees higher, four bricks would be added to the chart. Another brick would only be added if you were to have a new close another two points higher. For there to be a brick created in the opposite direction, you would need prices to reverse and close at least two times the size of the brick. If price does not do this, then any correction will be ignored by the chart.



Is Nifty Trend Reversing? a Comparison with 2005 to 2008 Chart patterns

Is Nifty Trend Reversing? a Comparison with 2005 to 2008 Chart patterns


  • Was looking at Nifty Today. Some how feel that the reversal has already started.
  • Comared the patterns with 2005 to 2008 Nifty and it looks same to me
  • Look the below Charts and let me know what you think,
  • You can see every time it fallen it hasn't crossed previous highs.
  • Be Cautious while trading.

3yrs Chart till Date:



2005 TO 2008 Sep Chart



Tuesday, 25 August 2015

NIFTY PE is still high at 21.63 after recent market crash

NIFTY PE is still high at 21.63 after recent market crash


  • Recent crash has not give much attractive valuation for Nifty. Its still in 21.63 which is high.
  • We feel more correction is left and Nifty will come around PE 18.
  • We will see in coming days how this pans out. We wont see a drastic fall, but a slow erosion is what we expect.

Wednesday, 12 August 2015

Key Points on What Yuan devaluation means to Indian Share Market

Key Points on What Yuan devaluation means to Indian Share Market


  • China is Worlds largest Manufacturing export country.
  • With 2 % Devaluation of the currency, the export from China will become Cheaper.
  • So countries like India which is also trying to become Manufacturing Country now has to compete with China as the Product manufactured in China will be Cheaper then India.
  • So in order to handle this Indian Rupee will also depreciate close to 2 % if it want to stay competitive with China
  • So our currency will devalue some where at  close to 65.5 Rs per dollar.
  • We will see exporting companies losing close to at-least 2 % of there revenue because of this.
  • Also this will put lot of companies in Slowdown as China itself is struggling with its exports and when will we export if China cant export :)
  • So apart from all the Media buzz that we will handle it, truth it truth. We are going to have very tough 2 to 3 quarters of results.

Saturday, 8 August 2015

Colgate Palmolive recommended 1 .5 yrs back has surpassed its target. Reinvest with target of 3000 Rs in 2yrs time frame




  • Colgate Palmolive is one of the safe stock. We call them FD (Fixed Deposit) stocks. :)
  • They never disappoint. The reason is India's consumption story.
  • As our population increases and per capita income of each household increases,these stocks are going to see consistent growth
  • I think this smart city project that is being implemented will hugely benefit these Consumer Stocks as people are going to use more of these prodcuts in tier2 and tier3 cities.
  • So We suggest to reinvest with target of 3000 Rs in 2yrs time frame
  • Old post-->

Tuesday, 4 August 2015

GM Breweries Recommended 1.5 yrs back has achieved its target


GM Breweries Recommended 1.5 yrs back has achieved its targert


  • We recommended GM breweries last year February at around 80 Rs With target of 220.
  • After that the company gave a bonus in last year may of 1 share for every 4 share held.
  • Now the stock has been in upper circuit for sometime and its currently at 350 Rs. This is 4X times from what we recommended.
  • These are how Multibaggers are made. Finding the Right stock at early stage and sticking on to it with patience. 
  • Hope our followers have benefited from this recommendation.
  • Please continue to hold on to this stock as its growing steadily and debt free company.

Old Posting:


http://niftyhistoricaldata.blogspot.in/2014/02/gm-breweries-multibagger-trgt-220-in.html

Saturday, 1 August 2015

Our 5 year Portfolio status Check after 1 year



  • 1 year back we have recommended Portfolio for our investors that they can follow for 5 year time frame.
  • Today we did a review. It has given returns of around 14 % in 1 year.
  • Some Stocks did well Other did bad, but we are hopeful that these stocks will have better years going forward.
     
  • Old Posting-->http://niftyhistoricaldata.blogspot.in/2014/07/your-portfolio-stocks-for-next-5-years.html